Sweden’s strategy ahead of COP21

Stockholm, Aug.19(Greenpost)–Sweden has drawn up a strategy that is to guide Sweden’s work ahead of the climate change conference, COP21, in Paris later this year, according to a statement published in the government website.

The strategy identifies priorities and positions in the Government’s climate policy at national, EU and international level.

The objectives and parts of the strategy

The overarching objective of the strategy is for the UN climate change conference in Paris in 2015 to result in a global, fair and legally binding climate agreement that helps to keep global warming as far below two degrees as possible over time. The strategy rests on three pillars:

  • Sweden is to be a leading country and tighten its national climate policy. Sweden is also pushing for the EU to raise its ambitions in terms of emissions reductions.
  • The new climate agreement needs to be dynamic so that countries’ binding emissions targets can be subsequently raised.
  • A good agreement will only be achieved if willing countries cooperate. Sweden is to prioritise cooperation with the countries that are also pushing for an ambitious agreement and that are most vulnerable to      the effects of climate change.

Climate change hits the already vulnerable the hardest

The effects of climate change affect all countries, but poor and vulnerable countries that do not have the resources to adapt to the changes are particularly hard hit. All countries must make the transition to a sustainable society with low emissions and high resilience to the effects of climate change. If done properly, a transition of this kind also has positive effects on economic development and poverty reduction, energy security and improved health, as well as important environmental targets such as clean air.

It is also important to take account of the challenges that come with such a transition. Sweden is encouraging a broader discussion on how the global investment flows can be aligned so that they support socially, economically and environmentally sustainable development with a considerably smaller prevalence of fossil fuels. Important global components include putting a price on carbon dioxide and not subsidising fossil energy.

Raised climate ambitions needed

A new climate agreement under the UN is crucial for international climate efforts. The agreement should be guided by science and include emissions commitments that, over time, can limit global warming to a level as far below two degrees as possible. This will require a higher level of climate ambition as well as new, enhanced initiatives in every country of the world and among central actors, including Sweden and the EU.

COP 21 can provide the political momentum to push forward a higher level of ambition concerning emission reductions also in the EU. Progress is needed regarding both emissions reductions and climate adaptation. Climate financing is important to strengthen climate action. Other tools and instruments for implementation, such as technology development, technology diffusion and capacity development, are also key to achieving the higher climate ambitions. Climate financing will be a crucial issue for whether the world can agree on a new climate agreement in Paris.

Pressure remains on Chinese economy

BEIJING, Aug. 12 (Xinhua) — Newly released economic indicators fell short of market expectations, revealing that the Chinese economy still lacks momentum and downward pressure remains.

China’s value-added industrial output, which measures the final value of industrial production, expanded 6 percent year on year in July, down from 6.8 percent for June, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said Wednesday.

The decline in output growth ended a steady recovery trend recorded in the second quarter of this year.

NBS statistician Jiang Yuan attributed the drop mainly to flagging external demand, a weak property sector and lowered production of some consumer goods, including automobiles and cigarettes.

Year-on-year growth in the first seven months stood at 6.3 percent, the same level as the growth for the first half of the year.

The NBS data only tracks the output of large Chinese companies with annual primary business revenues of more than 20 million yuan (3.16 million U.S. dollars).

Industrial output in China’s western regions increased by 7.9 percent in July, trailed by 7.4 percent in central areas and 6 percent in eastern regions.

Manufacturing output rose 6.6 percent, mining output added 5.6 percent, while that of the electricity, heating, gas and water sectors dropped 0.2 percent, the bureau said.

China’s fixed-asset investment, a major driver of growth, also witnessed slightly slower growth, with no sign of improvement for investment in property and infrastructure.

Retail sales held steady in July, as the growth rate was just 0.1 percentage point lower than a month ago.

Qu Hongbin, chief China economist at HSBC, said the data fell below general market expectations.

The declining output and investment growth showed the rebound in June was just temporary and pressure for growth was again on the rise, Qu said.

“With gloomy prospects for external demand, China will still need to rely on domestic demand to maintain steady growth, indicating that future monetary and fiscal policies should continue to be relaxed,” he said.

China’s exports dropped 0.9 percent from a year earlier in the first seven months, according to new customs data.

A research note from Minsheng Securities also said China’s growth is still facing huge pressure and the country needs to make more efforts to realize its goal of annual economic growth of around 7 percent.

China should take more pragmatic measures to stabilize growth, including further cuts in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and more targeted measures to reduce long-term interest rates, Minsheng said.

Qu added that the disappointing figures will also reinforce the market’s expectations for further depreciation of China’s currency, the yuan, posing risks of overcorrection in the exchange rate, which may lead to retaliation from other countries.

On Tuesday, China’s central bank changed the exchange rate formation system to take into consideration the closing rate of the inter-bank foreign exchange market on the previous day, as well as supply and demand in the market and price movements of major currencies.

The central parity rate of the yuan weakened by about 1.6 percent against the U.S. dollar Wednesday, following a 2-percent depreciation on Tuesday.

HSBC forecast an additional 25-basis-point interest rate cut and a 200-basis-point cut to the RRR in the second half to sustain growth.

The central bank has cut both interest rates and the RRR three times since the beginning of this year. Enditem

Source Xinhua

China Headlines: All you need to know about China’s new FX policy

BEIJING, Aug. 12 (Greenpost) — When China’s central bank unexpectedly adjusted its yuan central parity system, it triggered the currency’s biggest decline for decades.

So, what exactly happened?

On Tuesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) changed the way it calculated the yuan central parity rate, to close the gap between the rate and the actual trading rate on the money markets.

From Tuesday, the central parity rate has taken into account the previous day’s inter-bank market closing rate, supply and demand in the market and price movements of other major currencies.

Ma Jun, a central bank economist, described the change to the way the central parity rate is calculated as a “one-off” technical correction that should not be seen as the beginning of a devaluation trend.

Just what is the central parity rate?

Each trading day at 9:15 a.m. Beijing time, the central parity rates of the yuan are announced against 11 major currencies including the euro, sterling, U.S. dollar and yen. The rates are determined by a weighted average of pre-opening prices offered by market makers. When the inter-bank FX market opens 15 minutes later, trading may only take place within 2 percent of the rate.

Why now?

The U.S. dollar is strong and a sharp appreciation in the real yuan rate has hit China’s exports hard. The figures for July slumped by 8 percent. Furthermore, the central parity rate has gradually deviated from the market rate “by a large amount and for a long duration,” according to the PBOC, which has undermined “the authority and the benchmark status” of the central parity system.

How did markets react?

On Wednesday, the yuan declined sharply for the second day in a row, leading to a heavy sell-off in regional currencies and raising concern worldwide that volatility will become a drag on global economic growth.

Asian stocks fell.

The yuan is expected to remain weak and volatile in the near term.

Is this a deliberate move to stimulate exports?

Tuesday’s move is regarded as another step towards allowing market forces to determine the value of the yuan, but is probably not enough to make much difference to either exporters or China’s trade partners.

HSBC say the move does not mean that China has begun to purposely devalue the yuan.

“In an environment of soft global recovery, the benefits of beggar-thy-neighbor competitive devaluation are neither clear nor easy to reap,” was the bank’s analysis of the situation.

How will this affect the Chinese people?

A weaker yuan makes imported products more expensive and foreign travel more costly.

The Chinese are just getting used to their new prosperity. Shopping has become very important to them, especially shopping for imported goods. Foreign travel for its own sake, but more specifically for shopping, is central to the aspirations of China’s new wealthy classes. Those who plan to study abroad, particularly at American schools, will also feel the pinch.

Is all this good or bad for the yuan’s chances of a quick inclusion in SDR?

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has welcomed the reform, which will certainly raise the prospects for the yuan becoming part of the IMF special drawing rights (SDR) currency basket sooner rather than later.

The change does not directly affect the push for SDR inclusion, but an IMF spokesman said on Wednesday that “a more market-determined exchange rate would facilitate SDR operations in case the yuan was included in the currency basket.”

What’s the risk?

The depreciation might trigger capital flight, dealing a blow to the stability of China’s financial system. Bloomberg economists Fielding Chen and Tom Orlik reckon that a 1-percent depreciation against the dollar will suck 40 billion U.S. dollars out of China. While 40 billion U.S. dollars is certainly not chicken feed, with massive foreign exchange reserves, substantial bank deposits and a controlled capital account, China is well set to deal with such an eventuality.

So, what next?

The PBOC has promised more FX reform along the lines of “market- orientation” and opening up the FX market. More foreign entities are being allowed to participate in China’s financial markets, and the onshore-offshore yuan exchange rate will gradually be unified. Enditem

 

China Focus: Chinese exporters see limited impact from weakening yuan

SHANGHAI, Aug. 12 (Greenpost) — China’s renminbi extended its sharp drop against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday from the previous day, but exporters say a weakened yuan has a limited effect on their business.

The official guidance rate of the Chinese currency shed 1.6 percent, or 1,008 basis points, on Wednesday, following Tuesday’s sharp fall of 1.9 percent.

Such a sharp decline against the greenback is unusual for the Chinese currency, which has been moving within a narrow range this year despite a firming dollar on expectations of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate hikes.

Analysts have largely attributed the correction in the exchange rate to China’s response to the IMF’s call for the currency to better reflect market forces, but the yuan’s weakening came on the heels of weak July export data. Yet exporters have shown a mixed response to the yuan’s drop in value.

“The depreciation does benefit Chinese exports, but to a limited effect.” said Liang Hong, chief economist at China International Capital Corporation.

Liang said that the depreciation that came as a result of tweaking the formation of the renminbi’s central parity rate will only marginally relieve the pressure on growth brought by slowing exports.

China’s July exports slid 8.3 percent from a year ago, far below the street consensus of -1.5 percent.

“The depreciation will boost confidence among exporters after the sluggish July export data,” said Lu Dong, deputy manager at the Shanghai branch of China Export & Credit Insurance Corp. “But that is not the purpose for the yuan’s slide and it won’t be the start of massive depreciation against the dollar.”

According to Julian Evans-Pritchard, China economist at Capital Economics, the change in how the reference rate is set is primarily intended as a move toward greater liberalization of the foreign exchange market ahead of the IMF’s decision about whether or not to include the renminbi in the SDR basket.

Though the yuan has depreciated significantly against the dollar, the drop in value is not as pronounced compared to other currencies.

Still, the yuan’s largest single day drop in almost two decades has some exporters cheering.

“Nothing makes me happier than seeing the yuan weaken against the dollar,” said Jiang Zhencheng, general manager of Shanghai Tianmao Stationary Co. Ltd.

“A strong yuan has blunted our competitiveness in the international market. The correction is such a relief for us as the United States is our key market,” Jiang said.

“The depreciation will benefit textiles and light industry as the two sectors in China are very export-oriented,” said CITIC analyst Ju Xinghai.

However, the actual positive impact of the depreciation is not as much as in theory because change in the exchange rate will lead to price adjustment, Ju added.

“The devaluation of the renminbi does work to our advantage. However, as a weaker yuan pushes up trade volume, our export price will also have to readjust,” said Li Qi, director of production at Licheng Clothing Group.

“Even if we don’t, our overseas clients will demand it anyway,” Li said. Enditem

冰岛央行决定提升利率0.5个百分点

北欧绿色邮报网报道(记者陈雪霏)--据冰岛央行消息,冰岛央行货币委员会19日宣布将利率提升0.5个百分点以应对抬头的通货膨胀。目前利率5.25%。图由冰岛央行提供。

根据冰岛央行货币委员会的预测,冰岛今年的经济增长率将达到2008年危机以来的最高值4%,冰岛克朗有所升值,通货膨胀率达到了4%,而冰岛央行和北欧其他央行一样主要是要看住通货膨胀这匹野马,不能让它超过2.5%。

央行统计分析认为,受世界经济产能过剩的影响进口商品价格没有预期的那么高,同时,工人工资结算期间,拉动了内需的提高,投资的减少,经济进入正确轨道。

央行认为,目前金融稳定,但如果不能降低通货膨胀,央行将会进一步提高利率,但要提高多少,还要进一步根据形势来决定。

冰岛2008年由于美国金融危机的影响,本国政府和议会也出现大量腐败和股市的内部炒作,尤其是议员炒股,借贷,影子银行等情况造成金融资产大大超过冰岛整个国家的GDP。同时吸引大量英国和荷兰储户,但最终金融崩盘,政府倒台。冰岛后来在国际货币基金组织和周边国家的帮助下,借了大量的债务,对于英国和荷兰的债务也要在45年内才能还清,但过去几年里,冰岛央行一直严密监视金融动向,死守低通货膨胀,每一次利率变动都是半个百分点,甚至是在过去一年多几乎都没有任何调整,保持不动,实现了金融基本稳定。可以说没有消息就是好消息。

冰岛央行认为,通货膨胀率最好保持在2%-2.5%之间,一旦偏离这个区间1.5%以上,他们将采取措施。央行认为,当通货膨胀低的时候,物价比较稳定。高通胀可以引发不确定性,对经济和社会都是有害的。这种不确定性的害处是降低竞争约束,公司会很难决定是否要进行合适的投资,因此可以降低GDP的增长。

当然通货膨胀也不能低到0,如果一点儿通货膨胀都没有,那工人就没有涨工资的余地了。从长远来说也制约增长。根据瑞典,冰岛,挪威等央行的经验,通货膨胀的目标保持在2%比较好。要保持这个目标,就是通过谨小慎微的浮动利率来调节。

 

Iceland’s Central Bank to raise the interest rates by half percentage points.

Stockholm, Aug. 19(Greenpost)–

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Iceland has decided to raise the Bank’s interest rates by 0.5 percentage points. The Bank’s key interest rate – the rate on seven-day term deposits – will therefore be 5.5%.

According to the Bank’s new forecast, GDP growth will be just over 4% this year and about 3% per year for the two years thereafter. Over the forecast period, growth will be about ½ a percentage point below the Bank’s May forecast per year. It will be robust nevertheless, and a positive output gap will widen in the coming term, with GDP growth driven by domestic demand – especially private consumption – to a greater extent than in recent years. Investment will be weaker than previously forecast, however, and labour demand will grow more slowly.

Inflation has risen in the recent term but is still below the Bank’s inflation target, particularly if the housing component of the CPI is excluded. However, the inflation outlook has deteriorated markedly since the last forecast, owing to the recent wage settlements, and inflation expectations have risen. Inflation is forecast to rise to 4% early in 2016 and to hover in the 4-4½% range over the next two years before easing towards the target, as the forecast implies that the monetary stance will be tightened in the near future.

Changes in the economic outlook since May are attributable primarily to the effects of large pay increases following the wage settlements and the monetary tightening that inevitably accompanies pay hikes of such size. The changes also stem from global factors, which have contributed to a more pronounced decline in import prices than previously expected, and improved terms of trade, which counteract the inflationary effects of the pay rises. Furthermore, the króna has appreciated slightly, in spite of substantial foreign currency purchases by the Central Bank.

If inflation rises in the wake of the wage settlements, as is forecast, the MPC will have to raise interest rates still further in order to bring inflation back to target over the medium term. How much and how quickly will depend on future developments and on how the current uncertainty plays out, including the degree to which large pay increases are passed through to prices, on the one hand, and the degree to which they prompt rationalisation and productivity growth, on the other. Developments in terms of trade, credit growth, and real estate prices are important factors as well. In addition, the interest rate path will depend on whether other policy instruments are used to contain demand-side pressures in the coming term.

Overnight lending: 7.25%
Seven-day collateralised lending: 6.25%
Seven-day term deposits: 5.50%
Current account: 5.25%